NATO Summit – key takeaway

Ungrateful Ukraine to Blame

They say a picture paints a thousand words – and doesn’t this just broadcast Volodymyr Zerenski’s isolation at the NATO summit (1) – and not just because he misread the dress code? (2)

Predictably, NATO leaders chose not to publicly name the unfolding military disaster in Ukraine, but that didn’t stop them apportioning blame for it and punishing accordingly. The message to Ukraine was clear:

– There is no planned route for the country to attain NATO membership until it beats Russia (or at the very least pushes it backwards across eastern Ukraine – back to the negotiating table on The West’s terms).

– There will be no further supplies of military hardware beyond that which has already been agreed. (3) Apparently Ukraine has already received sufficient support to do the job. The inference is that the Ukrainian military has squandered and mis managed the opportunity to strike decisively against Russian forces. (4)

– Ukraine will lose all support from NATO if it attempts to seek terms from Russia directly (or, shock horror, through the auspices of global enemy no.1 China). It must keep fighting, despite the hopelessness of the situation and the truly appalling level of casualties. (5)

– NATO will not commit its own personnel to the conflict. Ukraine is alone in this nightmare – although security guarantees will be given at some point in the future by as yet un-named countries. (6)

I suspect the above photo was taken at the beginning of the conference, before all this became clear. There is more of a hint of embarrassment in the way in which the other participants are engaging with each other and leaving him on his own – the unwanted guest at the party.

By all accounts once the situation did become clear Zelensky was furious and completely unable to hide his anger. Justifiably so.

Ukraine is now in the worst position it has been since 2014, when the conflict kicked off through the Maiden coup. An invitation to join NATO was backed by the promise of a clear route plan to membership – an offer that would inevitably provoke a strong response from Russia. Moreover, the situation in the country is much, much, worse than in March 2022 when an outline peace deal with Russia had been agreed and signed, that would have resulted in:

– An immediate ceasefire (Russian forces had already started withdrawing from around Kyiv) which would have brought the cessation of hostilities and stability to the region.

– Plebiscites for the population in Eastern Ukraine to determine which country their region should be part of.

– The avoidance of the subsequent destruction of much infrastructure and the loss of so many soldiers in poorly executed offensives at the behest of NATO.

– Progression to EU membership (but no route to NATO membership – one of Russia’s red lines).

No wonder Zelensky was angry – he, and the country for which he and his government is responsible, have been led a merry dance in being persuaded by NATO to give back word on the peace deal on the basis that he and it would be supported by ‘whatever it takes’ to defeat Russian resoundly on the battlefield. The calculus on which this strategy was based (that the Russian economy would implode under the weight of western sanctions and that its army would ‘run away’ when faced with superior NATO equipment and tactics) has proved to be completely erroneous. Now the dance is entering its final denouement where he, his government and the Ukrainian people are being hung out to dry.

Zelensky was more than angry, he was incandescent – and probably very, very fearful. He and his government have no-where to go as they are being forced to oversee and take responsibility for the terminal collapse of Ukrainian armed forces and the country at large. To add insult to injury he was then lectured by Ben ‘let’s bomb Russia’ Wallace (7) about the need for Ukraine to show more gratitude for the support provided by The West. Really?!!!

Meanwhile Joe ‘there’s nothing he can’t fuck up’ Biden (8) sails away to focus on his re-election (and riposte to looming corruption charges re business interests in Ukraine) (9) leaving a wake of indifference to the plight of Ukraine and Europe behind him.

Given such previous bad faith it seems unlikely that The Kremlin will consider negotiating with either Zelensky or Biden. Changes of administration in each country may be required before this can come about. This would surely be a positive for Ukraine …… while the implications of this for the US are ….. well ……. interesting ……

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Notes:

(1) I know this is only one photo (and there are others showing Zelensky being greeted warmly by other delegates) – but it was one that was highlighted by western mainstream media – to push a particular message and spark a particular debate. An allusion, at last, to a very real state of affairs perhaps?

(2) Cheap shot this (and I know he could have chosen to wear a suit) – but the image cuts right through to one of those so human situations – being unwanted and a bit of an embarrassment. It also highlights just how well heeled the representatives of our ruling elites are. When I pulled this image up I immediately felt sorry for the man, despite his heading up of such a right wing and aggressive regime. My sense is that he has been largely used by others in this situation, although (reportedly) this has not stopped him from stashing away the spondular and purchasing numerous properties in the west.

(3) There are few armaments left in the west with which to further supply a Ukraine which has effectively presided over the destruction of 3 whole armies since 2014. NATO countries have been raiding their own militaries to make good promised re-supplies and are aghast out how easily their much vaunted superior equipment is being outperformed by the Russians. The destruction of so many Bradley fighting vehicles and Leopard 2 tanks has done nothing for their future sales potential and it is rumoured that the UK is resisting the use of the 20 Challenger tanks on the battlefield for fear of watching them burn too. To provide some context, the UK currently has 50 Challenger battle tanks at its disposal.

(4) The reality is that without air support Ukrainian troops on the ground are very vulnerable when in the open. Moreover, NATO style combined operations require a level of training that has simply not been provided to Ukrainian forces.

(5) Presumably Ukraine has to keep fighting until NATO and the collective west can work out how to extract themselves from a strategic disaster (both militarily and economically).

(6) Subsequently it has emerged that security guarantees will be discussed at the next G7 meeting. This is an economic forum not a military organisation.

(7) I may have got this quote mixed up with another comedian (!) – but you get the point – Wallace is advocating supplying Ukraine with missiles capable of striking deep into the heart of Russia. Maybe this was even too much for many NATO leaders who then scuppered his bid to become secretary general of the organization.

(8) Quote attributed to Barack Obama.

(9) So Berlusconi – you couldn’t make it up!

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Main sources of information:

– Alex Christoforou & Alexander Mercouris

– Brian Berletic

– Danny Haiphong

– Scott Ritter

– The Daily Mail